Sebastopol, CA Real Estate Market Forecast 2023

Sebastopol, CA Real Estate Market Forecast 2023

  • Kimberly Maffia
  • 12/28/22

Located in Sonoma Valley, Sebastopol is synonymous with the luxury and gorgeous scenery associated with one of the work’s best wine countries. Diverse landscapes surround Sebastopol, and from the coastal dunes to thick redwood forests to endless vineyards and wineries, there are plenty of outdoor adventures to be had in the area. Sebastopol also has an eclectic and hip downtown area filled with coffee shops, restaurants, and plenty of amenities for residents, including parks, biking, walking trails, and so much more. Plus, with excellent schools offered both by public and private institutions, Sebastopol is a great place to raise a family.
With so many amenities and a location within one of the best wine regions of the world, homes for sale in Sebastopol, CA, are in high demand. Land for sale in Sebastopol is also popular, as Sebastopol has fabulous farms, sweeping views, and plenty of country charm.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in Sebastopol, you’ll need to understand the upcoming changes to the Sebastopol, CA, real estate market in 2023. Our guide will not only cover those changes but also the economic factors driving them and provide expert advice on how to proceed with your real estate transactions.

Upcoming changes

One of the most significant recent trends and upcoming changes in the national real estate market is decreased home sales. The National Association of Realtors has reported that, from August 2021 to August 2022, residential home sales have dropped by 19.9%, with an additional 0.4% decline from August 2022 to September 2022. This trend is occurring throughout all geographic regions in the United States, particularly the West, where the National Association of Realtors reported that home sales decreased by 29% from August 2021 to August 2022. The California Association of Realtors also echoed these sentiments, predicting a 7.2% decline in existing home sales moving into 2023.
However, this decreased demand will most likely not be accompanied by a severe decrease in value. The National Association of Realtors reported an increase in median home sales prices, both nationally and by region. For example, the national median home price increased to $389,500 from August 2021 to August 2022, which is a 7.7% increase. According to the California Association of Realtors, California saw a slightly smaller increase in 2021 to 2022 in the median home price of 5.7%. The National Association of Realtors has continued to see steady home values still increasing, although at a slower rate than what we’ve seen in previous years. This trend will most likely continue through at least the first half of 2023 despite slowing sales. As of November 2022, within Sonoma County, the median price of single-family detached homes was $834,580, which is up 7.7% year-to-year. At the same time, home sales have decreased by 40.3% year-to-year.

Driving factors

Photo courtesy of Unsplash
One of the main driving factors in the trends above is increased mortgage interest rates. Mortgage interest rates were at all-time lows from 2020 through 2022. For example, according to Freddie Mac, in December 2020, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.65%.
Mortgage rates stayed low until January 2022, when a 3.22% interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage started to climb. Reaching 4.72% by the beginning of April 2022, interest rates were on the rise throughout all of 2022. By the end of October 2022, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.94%. These high interest rates are slowing the real estate market and are primarily responsible for a decline in home sales.
According to a study published by the National Association of Realtors, in 2022, 16% of buyers listed financing options as the primary reason for buying a home. Buyers like this will be dissuaded from purchasing a home in 2023, as interest rates are expected to remain high.
A second driving factor influencing the real estate market is increased inflation. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index, which measures the average change over time in prices of goods and items, is on the rise. The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% again in September and 0.1% in November, even after seasonal adjustments.
Inflation affects the real estate market in several ways. First, high costs of energy and materials can slow new home building. This decreases inventory and can lead to strains on home availability. A second way that inflation affects the real estate market is that the Federal Reserve continues to increase mortgage interest rates to try to decrease demand, cool the market, and decrease inflation. Lastly, inflation causes an increased cost of living for consumers. This means that people have less cash available on hand, leaving buyers hesitant to enter the housing market.

Make your move

Your next move into the Sebastopol, CA, real estate market depends if whether you are buying or selling and your particular financial situation. Buyers who have more cash to put down for a down payment, or those who can purchase the home in cash, will be at an advantage. With high mortgage rates, financing a home will cost more in 2022, and this challenge will likely continue into 2023. Sellers can expect some decreased demand but steady home values. With patience and a bit more time, sellers should still be able to sell their homes for a great price, particularly with the inventory shortages we’ve seen so far.
Whether you’re buying or selling a home, working with an experienced realtor is always a great strategy. In the Sebastopol area, expert agent Kimberly Maffia is ready to help. Kimberly has ample experience in the Sonoma area and enjoys forming personal connections with her clients to help them reach their real estate goals, no matter the market conditions. She is ready to guide you every step of the way.

*Header photo courtesy of Unsplash

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Kimberly is available, open, honest most importantly fun to be around! If you are thinking of buying or selling your home, with Kimberly Maffia, you have a friend and trusted advisor in Real Estate.

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